[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250035
SWODY1
SPC AC 250033

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM 20 N MSY 30
SSE LUL TOI 20 SSE MCN 45 SSW CHS ...CONT... DAB 40 SSE GNV 60 NNE
PIE 35 ENE SRQ 40 S FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW VBG 10 N PRB 40
NW BFL 30 ENE SCK 25 WSW TVL 50 SSE BIH 35 NW P38 15 SSE MTJ 55 ESE
DRO GUP 60 E SOW 20 W ALM 30 SE ELP 40 WNW MRF 95 SW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
GIVEN FAVORABLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING/
OROGRAPHY BENEATH ELONGATED SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
WITH PASSAGE OF PEAK HEATING...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SHORTLY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AS BLOCK IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEAKENS...
AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACCELERATES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
STRONGER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHER BRANCH OF
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER SUPPORT FOR ONGOING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ALREADY APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING.  A CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TENDENCY FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED.  ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH COASTAL WATERS WEST/NORTHEAST OF
TAMPA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. 
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECAME FOCUSED SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE RIVER THIS EVENING SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 02/25/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.