[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 242121
SWODY1
SPC AC 242119

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
HUM HUM 15 SE MSY 35 SSW GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ AYS 40 WNW
CHS 30 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NNE
MER 40 W TPH 40 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 ESE INK 30 ESE HDO 45 ENE
CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 35 NW POE
40 NNW ESF 20 NE HEZ 40 NNW MOB 35 SSE MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA...

AMENDED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF SERN LA TO A SLIGHT RISK

...COASTAL SERN LA...
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF MCS/BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN
GULF TO JUST INLAND OF SRN LA IN TERREBONNE COUNTY.  EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W BOUNDARY HAD RETREATED NWD TO ALONG
AND JUST INLAND OF THE SERN LA COAST.  60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE BOW ECHO...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW.  ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS OF SRN/SERN LA COAST WHERE THE E-W BOUNDARY HAS MOVED
INLAND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH 00Z.

...DISCUSSION FROM 20Z...

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH EACH OF THE SHORT WAVES HAVE ALLOWED CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON PER VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION.  HAIL WITH SOME REPORTS
APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A
CATEGORICAL RISK.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME
CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  HOWEVER... OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SMALL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK.

..PETERS.. 02/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.