[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240550
SWODY1
SPC AC 240548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAB 15 NNW PIE
...CONT... PFN ABY MCN 30 ESE CLT RDU 25 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF P07 JCT
AUS LFK POE 35 W BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER
35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ GUP TCS 35 WNW ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
PERSIST...BUT MODELS DO INDICATE NORTHWESTERN U.S. CENTER OF HIGH
HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL BOTH WEAKEN LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...CONFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IN
RESPONSE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES.

PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
...SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS
ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE MORE
RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT EVOLVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY THROUGH DAYBREAK.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ABOVE DEEPENING
SURFACE-BASED COLD INTRUSION...WHICH...BY 24/12Z...IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPRESS RISK OF STRONGER STORMS TO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO.

THEREAFTER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR/
NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...OVERALL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ARIZONA LIKELY WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR STORMS WITH HAIL
TODAY. POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING...WHEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL BE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR...WITH PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPEED MAXIMUM PROGRESSING SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA BORDER.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
MODELS SUGGEST INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE OUTER BANKS AREA OF NORTH CAROLINA TO SUPPORT
MENTION/OUTLOOK OF AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. 
CURRENT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OFF COASTAL AREAS APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS.  IF IT OCCURS...INLAND
INTRUSION OF WARM SECTOR ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/
OUTER BANKS AREA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS.

..KERR.. 02/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.