[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240104
SWODY1
SPC AC 240102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
PSX 30 WSW VCT COT DRT 45 ENE P07 SJT ACT LFK 25 NNW LCH 25 S HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MRY 30 SE SCK
15 NW BIH 10 ESE TPH MLF U28 MTJ CVS 55 NE BGS 40 N FTW HOT MEM MSL
45 SE LOZ TRI CLT 10 E SOP 40 ESE EWN ...CONT... VRB 15 N SRQ
...CONT... 35 SSE DMN 25 SSW SVC 30 NE FHU 35 WSW FHU.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...IN THE WAKE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN
BRANCH IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH CONFLUENCE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE RIDGE AND INTRUSION OF DEEPER COLD AIR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND
WILL POSE PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
IN THE FRONTAL BAND.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME BASED
ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT RISK OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN STRONGER CELLS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
AND SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.


...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES
PERSISTS ACROSS REGION... WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. 
COLD AIR ALOFT AND FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL APPROACHING...OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING...SEVERE LIMITS...GIVEN FAVORABLE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. 

SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF
CLOSED LOW.  AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO CONFLUENT
MID-LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS.  

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE  POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.  EXCEPTION MAY BE COASTAL
GEORGIA/CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...WHERE/WHEN STRONGER SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WILL COMMENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW.  RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING AIR MASS OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH SOME
HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 02/24/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.