[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232020
SWODY1
SPC AC 232019

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
PSX 15 NW VCT 15 ENE HDO 60 N DRT 45 NNE P07 45 ENE FST 15 SSE MAF
15 SW BGS 40 ESE BGS 30 SSW ABI 25 NNE BWD 25 ENE SEP 20 SSW DAL 35
SE DAL 35 WSW TYR 55 SSW TYR 35 W LFK LFK 25 W POE 35 NE ESF 35 WNW
JAN 45 NNW MEI TCL 30 SW ANB 35 E LGC 10 SE MCN 50 SE MCN 50 NNW AYS
50 NE MGR 15 S ABY 15 SSE DHN 20 ENE CEW 25 NNE PNS 35 SSE MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ
...CONT... 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL 15 WNW ELY
30 W VEL 20 SSE CAG 50 NW COS 35 S EHA 40 SSW GAG 35 N FSI 30 E MLC
45 NNW LIT 15 SSW ARG 30 NW DYR 40 SW BNA 60 S TYS 40 SE SPA ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL AND
ERN TX EASTWARD ACROSS LA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...

...SERN LA/MS/AL/WRN GA...
MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF ERN AND
SRN LA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MS AND INTO WRN AL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG BOWING ARC OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND ITS INTERSECTION WITH W-E BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM
SCNTRL MS EWD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS TSTMS OCCURRING
WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE W-E BOUNDARY WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND
WRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MCS ARRIVES. AIR MASS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK
FLOW IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS WILL FAVOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS
MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LINE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE APPEAR EQUALLY LIKELY...A SMALL TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY LONGER LIVED UPDRAFT TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.

...SRN NM TO SCNTRL TX...
PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM SRN NM ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WAS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING IN THE DRIER AIR MASS
NORTHEAST OF BIG BEND...AND NORTH OF ELP. A NUMBER OF FORCING
MECHANISMS...LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE...WILL PLAY INTO TSTM
EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH EVENING. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
WILL AID IN FOCUSING LOW LEVEL ASCENT WHILE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST OVER A LARGE
REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CA/AZ UPPER LOW. WHILE STORMS FROM NM
ACROSS WEST TX SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR/DYNAMIC FORCING...LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CHANCE
OF HAIL/WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF ONGOING STORM IN TERRELL COUNTY TX...WHERE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION COUPLES WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY. FRONTAL
ZONE ALSO INTERSECTS REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LA MCS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP/INITIATE ACROSS THIS
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GENERALLY HIGH LFC.
HOWEVER...LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF SR FLOW AND LOWER LFC NEAR
OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO IF AN
ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST...
TSTMS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ/NM...AS
WELL AS BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY.
MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING.  REGION
EXPERIENCING STRONGEST LIFT/DESTABILIZATION IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. NONETHELESS...A FEW HAIL EVENTS ARE QUITE
LIKELY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS AND PERHAPS BRIEF FUNNELS.

..CARBIN.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.