[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231625
SWODY1
SPC AC 231624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
PSX 40 SSW PSX NIR DRT P07 25 NE INK LBB 10 W DAL 45 E SHV 40 WSW
GLH TCL LGC MCN ABY MAI 30 S MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC
30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL ELY VEL CAG 4FC COS LAA P28 TBN CGI 35 ENE
MKL CHA AND 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS GULF
STATES...

...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW SRN PLAINS EWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS SRN
CA INTO AZ BY 12Z THU. A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD THRU SRN PORTION OF GULF STATES.
 MCS WHICH DEVELOPED OUT OF OVERNIGHT TX SEVERE HAS CONTINUED EWD
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY.

COOL..MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.

...SRN PLAINS EWD ALONG GULF COAST STATES...
THE CONFLUENT WLY FLOW LWR MS VALLEY  OF 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP/COOL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AN
EXCEPTION FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE MCS NOW
MOVING EWD INTO LA. IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY WITH SURFACE
HEATING AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY MORE DISORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP VICINITY OF E/W
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA.  MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
 RESULT IN MORE MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL
RISK.

IN THE WAKE OF MCS...AIR MASS CENTRAL TX WWD TO HILL COUNTRY SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES TO
2000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREAT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

...SERN CA/AZ...
WHILE SHEAR WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES ARE 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH A MODESTLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION.

..HALES.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.