[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231244
SWODY1
SPC AC 231242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
PSX 40 SSW PSX NIR DRT P07 25 NE INK LBB SPS GGG MLU TCL LGC MCN ABY
MAI 30 S MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC
30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL ELY VEL CAG 4FC COS LAA P28 TBN CGI 35 ENE
MKL CHA AND 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW FROM TX
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES FROM
CENTRAL TX ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO CENTRAL GA.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE ABOVE FRONT.  AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IS MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES
FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG.

...EAST TX/LA/MS/AL...
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
EAST TX WILL TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS LA INTO MS/AL THIS
AFTERNOON.  A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS OBSERVED WITHIN THIS
CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST AL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

...TX...
NAM/RUC GUIDANCE AGREE ON MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST TX...AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER
LOW.  COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000
J/KG/ AND INCREASING UVVS WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TX TONIGHT.  LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...CA/AZ...
CORE OF UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY THIS
EVENING.  COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER
LOW.

..HART.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.