[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230608
SWODY1
SPC AC 230605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
NIR 30 SSW HDO 25 E P07 35 NE INK 35 ESE LBB 50 NW MWL 35 SE DAL 30
NW LFK 20 S HOU 20 ENE NIR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW
MEI 15 SSE TCL 25 W MCN 40 ENE ABY 35 ENE MAI 30 NNW PFN 15 W MOB 30
SSW LUL 45 NNW MEI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC
30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC 20 NW BIH 35 NE BIH 35 NE TPH 35 SSW SLC 15 S
CAG 20 ESE 4FC 25 ENE PUB 20 ENE LAA 20 WSW P28 10 NNW BVO 35 ESE
FYV 40 NE PBF 35 ESE TUP 15 SE RMG 40 NW AGS 25 ENE CRE ...CONT...
25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE / CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
AGAIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE SW.  AT THE SURFACE...FRONT LINGERING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
WWD INTO TX WILL AGAIN SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MAIN SEVERE THREAT
THIS PERIOD.

...TX...
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS TX IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THIS PERIOD.  MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF FRONTAL SURGES SWD ACROSS
TX...WITH SCENARIO TO BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
N CENTRAL AND NERN TX / OK...WITH SOME COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW /
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OK.

DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SLOWLY COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON.  
THOUGH MODELS NOR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER
FEATURE WHICH MIGHT AFFECT THIS REGION...FORCING ALONG / N OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED SUGGEST NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  

WITH MODERATE /30 TO 35 KT/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS / A
FEW SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR OR JUST N OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL /
SERN TX...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.

...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / GULF COAST STATES...
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER W TO E ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
MINOR OSCILLATIONS IN FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION A WEAK EWD-MOVING WAVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX INTO LA
ROUGHLY ALONG SURFACE FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. 
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NEW CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN MOIST /
MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF SURFACE FRONT...AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX.  IT APPEARS ATTM
THAT SHEAR -- ALONG WITH INSTABILITY -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY
THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
-- LIKELY FROM SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA -- WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD EXIST.

...DESERT SW...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM SRN CA ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S.
/ MEXICO BORDER.  AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRONGER FLOW SUPPRESSED
GENERALLY S OF THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. 
ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL / DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL / WIND
THREAT FROM SRN CA EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN AZ.

..GOSS.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.