[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230107
SWODY1
SPC AC 230105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
JCT 45 S MAF 55 ENE HOB 40 SE CVS 15 ENE PVW 30 SSE CDS 10 W SPS 10
S DUA 30 SE PRX 25 SSW GGG 40 W LFK 30 SW TPL 45 W JCT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
YUM 40 WSW EED 30 NW IGM 45 ESE PRC 55 SSW SOW 50 W SAD 15 NNW TUS
80 S GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S UKI 40 NNW UKI
50 WNW RBL 35 ENE RBL 55 SSW SVE 65 NNW BIH 40 S TPH 20 NW P38 10
WNW BCE 25 NNW 4BL 30 W ALS 30 WNW TAD 45 N EHA 35 SSE DDC 10 SSE
PNC HOT 30 NW GLH 10 ESE GAD 35 NW AGS 25 SSW CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 WNW
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX NIR 45 SSE
DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...W TX EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AL...
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST INVOF COLD FRONT.  MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FURTHER W INTO TX...WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS INDICATED.  COLD
FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS N TX / THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD WITH TIME.  

WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE UPPER IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITHIN MODERATE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW...EXPECT
LOW-LEVEL JET TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED
STORMS -- AND THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL -- TO INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SWD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT. FURTHER S / WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED /
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
PERSIST...WITH GREATEST THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TX THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN CA / WRN AND CENTRAL AZ...
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. 
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH 500 TO
1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF AZ S OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.  WITH MODERATE / DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH ORGANIZED / POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS.

FURTHER W INTO SRN CA...INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER. 
NONETHELESS...A STRONGER LOW-TOPPED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE A
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST / ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/23/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.