[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221245
SWODY1
SPC AC 221244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
P07 35 NNE MRF HOB LBB SPS PRX ELD BHM ATL 30 NNW AGS 40 ENE CHS
...CONT... SSI 10 SSE SSI ABY 35 NNW CEW GPT ...CONT... 20 SE BPT
SAT 30 NW DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 15
NE RAL TRM 20 SW IPL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 40 WSW GDP
4CR RTN LAA DDC MKO PBF RMG FLO 20 ENE CRE ...CONT... VRB PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW UKI 40 N UKI
RBL TVL 55 NW TPH ELY 30 SE SLC CNY 30 NNW GUP 65 WNW SAD 60 SW TUS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO GA/SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA...

...SC/GA/AL/MS/LA...
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES.  SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...ROUGHLY FROM NORTH GA INTO NORTHEAST
TX.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS GA/AL/MS...AND
BEGIN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OVER LA/TX BY TONIGHT.  AIR MASS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
RATHER WEAK...AND UPPER FORCING WILL BE ILL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER...WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LA INTO GA/SC.  DESPITE WEAK
LOW LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME A THREAT OF HAIL
AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...TX...
WESTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL TX.  THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS TX THIS MORNING. 
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT
OF HAIL THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  HOWEVER...AREA OF MOST
FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX /MAF...SJT...
JCT AREAS/ THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SHEAR PROFILES
INCREASE.  SUPERCELL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS
REGION....SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX TONIGHT.

...SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHWEST AZ...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF
POINT CONCEPTION.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
TODAY...WHILE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN CA.  TIMING OF SYSTEMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.  THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500 J/KG.  ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY...SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AZ
TONIGHT.  HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. 
ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
CONTINUED LOW-END THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG THE COAST.

..HART.. 02/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.