[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220608
SWODY1
SPC AC 220605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
P07 35 NNE MRF 20 E CNM LBB 40 SSE CDS 30 SSW FTW 25 SSE TYR 55 S
GLH 20 SW SEM 20 SE TOI 35 ENE CEW 20 SW PNS ...CONT... 25 E PSX 20
NNE COT 25 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 40 WSW GDP
40 ENE ALM 30 SSW 4CR 15 WSW ONM 60 WNW TCS 40 E DUG ...CONT... 35
SSW UKI 45 W RBL 30 E RBL TVL 35 NNW BIH 10 ESE TPH 35 NW ELY 50 N
PUC 4FC LAA 35 ESE DDC 45 ESE FSM 25 ESE MEM 25 WSW RMG 40 ENE CAE
30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 35 SSE VRB 10 NW SRQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
/ ROUGHLY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE COLD /-24C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CA / SRN NV.  OTHERWISE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES /
PLAINS STATES AND TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT / FAST WLY FLOW IN A BROAD
ZONE CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SWD FROM ITS
INITIAL POSITION FROM SC WWD INTO NERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES / SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN GA WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD / NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS
SLY / SELY FLOW DEVELOPS S OF COLD FRONT...WHILE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE S OF FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.  DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH
500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS TX AND 1000 TO 2000
J/KG EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION BY AFTERNOON.

THOUGH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION...WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SUB-TROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION
OF W TX INTO SERN NM WHERE MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS. 
FURTHER WWD INTO TX...SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER --
PARTICULARLY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY W TO THE TRANSPECOS
REGION...WHERE STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS
REGION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION
-- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND NRN TX EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP / VEER FROM SELY TO SSWLY WITH TIME.  A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY INVOF
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

...SRN CA / AZ...
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA / AZ THIS
PERIOD IN SERN QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW.  STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW --
AND THUS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- IS FORECAST ACROSS FAR SRN CA AND INTO
SWRN AZ...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THIS
REGION THUS LIMITING SEVERE THREAT.

NONETHELESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS
AND MARGINAL HAIL.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE --
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST.

..GOSS.. 02/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.