[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220109
SWODY1
SPC AC 220108

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
PRB 45 WNW SAC 35 ENE SAC 20 N NID 25 SE IPL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
SAV 35 N AYS 30 SE CSG 35 NE CBM 35 E TUP 15 SSW MSL 20 WNW RMG 30
NNW AHN 20 SSE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 25 SSE VLD
35 W MAI 45 E LUL 15 SSE HEZ 30 ESE CLL 20 NE COT 45 W HDO 55 WSW
SJT 65 NE BGS 30 N MWL 15 WNW ELD 30 WNW UOX 35 NE MSL 20 N CSV 25
SW SHD 15 SSE MRB 30 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 35 N RBL 45
NW TVL 25 NNE BIH 15 NW DRA 55 SW SGU 25 SSW PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW
GBN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AL ESEWD ACROSS GA
INTO SRN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA...

...SERN CONUS...
SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM WITH MOIST /
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION.  GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS GA AND INTO EXTREME SRN SC...WHERE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM.  THREAT DECREASES WITH WWD
EXTENT ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO MS...WHERE UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEAKER.

WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION -- WHICH LIES ON THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY ACROSS MS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO AL...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTRAL
GA / FAR SRN SC.

...CENTRAL AND SRN CA...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WHILE VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATES CYCLONICALLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA.  LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
BENEATH COLD /-22 TO -24 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL
CA...LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL
-- WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY
DECREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATER THIS EVENING.

FURTHER S...FAST / DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ALONG EXTREME
SRN PORTIONS OF CA.  WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A SECOND LOBE OF
VORTICITY FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LESSER THREAT FOR
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODELS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED / WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT.  WITH THIS FEATURE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO 22/12Z.  HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 02/22/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.