[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 212001
SWODY1
SPC AC 212000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
SAV 20 NNE TOI 50 NE JAN 20 NW GLH 55 SW MEM 35 E MEM 25 N HSV CHA
20 N AND 30 NE CAE 10 SW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BVE LCH 35 S
CLL 30 NE DRT 70 SSW SJT 30 NW SJT 50 ESE SPS 35 W HOT 25 NW LIT 40
SW JBR 40 NE MKL 35 ENE BWG 20 NW LEX 50 WNW HTS 15 NNE CRW 25 S EKN
25 ENE CHO 35 NNW ORF 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 S SSI 45 NW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 35 S RBL 55
W RNO 65 NNW BIH 45 S TPH 55 SW SGU 25 SSW PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN AR...ACROSS
NRN MS/AL/GA AND PARTS OF SC...

...MS RIVER TO TN VLY TO SC COAST...
SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE LEADING ARC OF TSTMS NOW MOVING
INTO NC PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SURFACE-BASED
STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER RAIN AND RESIDUAL CP AIRMASS.
THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE WITH THIS
PARTICULAR BAND OF CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AIR MASS WAS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM THE LWR MS RIVER VLY ENEWD
ACROSS AL/GA...AND NOW INTO PARTS OF SC. WHILE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THESE AREAS...ACROSS AR AND TN...DIURNAL
HEATING AND WEAK LINES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND OUTFLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. REGION IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING
ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS OF THE CHANNELED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
OVER TN/KY. HOWEVER...DEEP WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE COUPLED
WITH WEAKLY CAPPED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG/...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR INTENSIFYING STORMS WITH A CHANCE
FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.

...SRN CA...
STRONGLY CYCLONIC DEEP LAYER FLOW CONTINUES WITHIN SERN PERIPHERY OF
LARGE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL...STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...AS WELL
AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL PROMOTE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS BENEATH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT NKX
APPEAR TO HAVE VEERED PER LATEST VWP AND ACARS DATA...PERHAPS IN
RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS...WHILE SHEAR
ACROSS THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED... BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE S/SE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM LA BASIN NWD ALONG THE COAST. AS
HEATING OF THE DAY AIDS IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC MAY SPREAD
ACROSS THE COAST AND POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

...NERN TX LATE...
LATEST 18Z ETA CONTINUES EARLIER TREND IN FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS OVER CNTRL/NERN TX LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE
INCREASE IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND ENCOUNTERS
DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. PERSISTENT WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN BOTH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND STRONG SHEAR ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS. THUS...IF STORMS DO INITIATE OVER THE AREA...LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.