[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211625
SWODY1
SPC AC 211624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
HSV 25 WSW CSV 45 SE LOZ 10 SE TRI 15 ENE AND 15 W MGM 25 E MEI 25
SE GWO 35 SW MSL 45 NNE HSV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
OXR 25 SW PMD RAL 40 SW TRM 10 ENE CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 45 NW CTY
...CONT... 10 WNW BVE LCH 40 ESE CLL 25 SE DRT 60 NNW DRT 25 SW SJT
30 NNW FTW 45 NE PRX 15 NNW HOT 55 ENE LIT 55 E MKL 15 ESE BWG 25
WNW JKL 20 S CRW CHO 15 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 35 NNW RBL 35 SW
SVE RNO TPH SGU 10 SSE PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

...SERN U.S...

S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX DRIVING CURRENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TN VALLEY...WILL MOVE EWD TO ATLANTIC
COAST BY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL OUTRUN THE
RETURN FLOW. WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CURRENT ACTIVITY CROSSES SRN APPALACHIANS INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  IN THE INTERIM WELL DEFINED BOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EWD ACROSS TN/NRN GA.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON TRAILING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NRN AL INTO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AND
MUCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG.  WITH S/WV MOVING E OF THIS
AREA...SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED  CONVECTION.  LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE EVENING.

...SRN CA...
STRONG SURFACE/UPPER LOW FORECASTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST AND GRADUALLY FILL NEXT 24 HOURS.  THRU THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS SRN CA COASTAL AREA.  CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOS/WATER SPOUTS
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR SLOWLY WEAKENS.

..HALES.. 02/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.