[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211235
SWODY1
SPC AC 211234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
DYR HOP LOZ HSS ATL SEM JAN GLH 45 WSW MEM 30 NNW DYR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BVE LCH 45 SSE
CLL 25 SE DRT 25 SSW P07 65 SW SJT ACT 40 S PRX 35 W HOT UNO MDH EVV
SDF CRW CHO 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... 25 ESE JAX 45 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 35 NNW RBL 35 SW
SVE RNO TPH SGU 10 SSE PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND TN VALLEY...

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX OVER
SOUTHEAST KS.  STRONG UVVS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE AIDED IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN TN.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH
OF TN AND NORTHERN MS/AL.  A RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND
AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING ALSO SUGGEST THE RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. 
STRONG WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS.  COMBINATION OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND RATHER
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...SOUTHERN CA...
NEXT POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN AFFECTING CA.  STRONG WIND
FIELDS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20 TO -24C AT 500MB/ AND POCKETS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOES...OVER THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN CA.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..HART.. 02/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.