[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160518
SWODY1
SPC AC 160516

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 25 SW SOP
20 WNW NHK 10 E ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE. NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN ON WED ACROSS THE NERN PARTS OF AMERICA.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OH VLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WED
PM AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST.  A SRN
STREAM JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE TO THE SERN STATES BY WED NIGHT.

...MID-ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE
EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL BE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE 18Z
WED THEN TO THE COAST BY 00Z.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MOISTEN WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE MID 50S BY PEAK HEATING
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-800 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT...
AUGMENTED BY COUPLING OF NRN/SRN STREAM JET STRUCTURES... WILL
LIKELY AID IN BANDS OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
18-21Z FROM CNTRL VA TO CNTRL NC.  VEERING OF THE WARM SECTOR LL
FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWNSLOPE...WHICH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DETRIMENTAL IN MAINTAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS.  NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLD TSTMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS 18-00Z FROM
ERN SHORES OF MD SWD INTO ERN NC.  ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING.

..RACY.. 02/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.