[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160036
SWODY1
SPC AC 160034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW JBR 45 ESE VIH
10 W SPI 25 SSE CGX 30 SW LAN MTC 25 N CLE 25 SSW CAK CRW 40 NE TRI
45 S TYS 45 S MSL 30 N GLH 50 SW JBR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH/TN VLYS...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE ARE
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VLYS
THIS EVENING.  WEAK 1006 MB LOW S OF KSTL WAS TRAVERSING A COLD
FRONT AND WILL MOVE FROM SERN MO TO NWRN OH OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NARROW RIBBON OF NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS BENEATH
7C/KM H5-H7 LAPSE RATES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG.  RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR/N OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN MO...BUT UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING OWING
TO WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY.

AS THE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD...SWLY LLJ WILL INCREASE
AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...VIA LIFT AND ADVECTION...WILL AID IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS. MUCAPES WILL LIKELY
GET NO HIGHER THAN 200-400 J/KG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR BANDS OF TSTMS.
 A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FARTHER N...H85 FRONT WILL BE TO FOCUS FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH.

..RACY.. 02/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.