[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161245
SWODY1
SPC AC 161243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 25 SW SOP
20 WNW NHK 10 E ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC...
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  THOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES YIELD LITTLE OR NO
INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE FRONT...STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS MAINTAINED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN PA INTO
ERN TN OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODELS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESS EWD.  ONCE AFTERNOON
HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING INCREASES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AS FRONT INTERACTS
THIS INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...STRONG SHEAR AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL LEAVE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN PLACE. PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS CENTERED ON
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY.  ETAKF AND ETA
CONTINUE TO FORECAST 70-75F SFC TEMPS ALONG WITH 56-58F DEW POINTS
BY 19Z INTO NERN NC/ERN VA...WHILE RUC MAINTAINS MID 60S OVER LOWER
50S.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN RESULTANT
INSTABILITY.  AM INCLINED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RUC ATTM. 
THOUGH...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...SLGT RISK COULD BE NEEDED LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IF IT APPEARS ETA AND ETAKF BOUNDARY-LAYER
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

..EVANS.. 02/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.