[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151952
SWODY1
SPC AC 151950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MTC 30 W CAK CRW
40 NE TRI 45 S TYS CBM GWO 45 NE LIT 35 NW UNO UIN MLI 15 WNW CGX 20
N FNT 15 N MTC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. NRN STREAM
JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE SRN STREAM JET
EXTENDS FROM TX INTO GA. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES AREA SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN MO.

...OH/TN VALLEYS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MO IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL 
IL THIS EVENING...AND THEN SWING NEWD THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND WRN TN. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE LIMITED...LOWER TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS OVER SERN AR/NRN MS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM SHOULD YIELD MUCAPES FROM 300 TO 800
J/KG BY EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE LOW/FRONT AND
LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT... BETWEEN THE NRN/SRN STREAM JET MAXES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN
MO/NERN AR AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE PARCELS
WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK...WITH THE STORM
UPDRAFTS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS.

THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT SHIFTS FURTHER NEWD INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY...WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER.

ALTHOUGH A COLD BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NRN IL EWD INTO
NWRN OH...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MUCAPES AOB 100 J/KG
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM NRN IL
ENEWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH/SRN LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..IMY.. 02/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.