[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151629
SWODY1
SPC AC 151627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST TUE FEB 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DAY 25 NNE UNI
CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS 35 NE CBM 15 NNW GWO 35 NE PBF 35 ENE UNO 30
WSW STL 30 SSW SPI DNV 25 NW MIE 35 NE DAY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENCE OF THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES.  A POSITIVE TILT
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EWD OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. 
AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE NOW IN SE KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH.  THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG THE PATH
OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

...MID/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW IN SE KS AS OF 15Z WILL MOVE ENEWD TO ROUGHLY THE
STL AREA BY 00Z.  12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AS FAR NE
AS SRN IL.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
55-60 F ARE PRESENT FROM E TX INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NWD/NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS ERN MO AND CENTRAL/SRN IL AND INDIANA.  THE INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE
/MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-750 J/KG/...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT.  STILL...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS
CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 02/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.