[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140534
SWODY1
SPC AC 140532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE
...CONT... 25 SSE HUM MCB 40 WNW MEI 40 NNE TCL 20 NW GAD 20 W RMG
15 NNW AHN 35 SSE AND 20 WSW FLO 30 ESE FAY 35 N EWN 35 SE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND SERN STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY EARLY TUESDAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  A TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD...REACHING
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING.  THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS.

...SERN STATES...
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN
GULF COASTAL AREA...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH.  AS PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NWD INTO
THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. THUS...TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THEY CROSS GA AND NRN FL WHERE
AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE MORE STABLE.

OTHERWISE...INCREASING SLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ADVECT MID
50S DEW POINTS NWD ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  NAM SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME PROFILES AND RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY THAN WILL BE REALIZED.  NAMKF SEEMS MORE REPRESENTATIVE
AND MAINTAINS SBCAPES AOB 500 J/KG.  THUS...DESPITE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...MINIMAL INSTABILITY/WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE SEVERE RISKS.  STRONGER STORMS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE NC/SC.

..RACY.. 02/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.