[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140053
SWODY1
SPC AC 140051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
CLL 10 E GGG 10 SSW TXK ELD 50 NW ESF 30 SSW POE 15 NNW BPT 35 NNW
HOU 35 ESE CLL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 N PSX
25 E CLL 40 SSE TYR 35 SW TXK 55 N HOT 35 E HRO 20 SSE UNO 30 N DYR
25 SW GLH 25 E MLU 15 W HEZ 40 SE LUL 45 NW PNS 35 SE CEW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX...NWRN LA AND
SWRN AR...

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN TX PER WATER
VAPOR LOOPS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MINUS 19C H5 TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ATOP A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODIFIED
GULF MOISTURE LOCATED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO E TX/WRN LA. 
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WERE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG A BOUNDARY E OF KCLL
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E...THERE MAY BE OTHER ISOLD TSTMS
DEVELOP ACROSS E TX OR WRN LA ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH POSSIBLE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  STORMS WILL NOT HAVE TO MOVE TOO FAR E BEFORE THE
AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME.

OTHERWISE...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN
LA TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY.  STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SWRN
FLANK OF THE TSTM CLUSTER...ROUGHLY WEST OF KLCH TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS S OF KGLS.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS NOT DESTABILIZED GIVEN
RAIN AND CLOUDS OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...RETURN
FLOW INTO S LA HAS BEEN PARTIALLY MODIFIED AT BEST WITH DEW POINTS
58-63F.  THUS...PRIND THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHT.  THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A
ISOLD WIND GUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL LA THIS
EVENING.

...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE SEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND WILL
LIKELY SWEEP INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.  00Z KSGF
SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION VCNTY H7 BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE KLZK SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED
SOME INHIBITION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.  THUS...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.

...PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ALONG/N OF CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL JET AXIS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM
THE PAC NW TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY.  THE LIGHTNING
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL SHOWERS DIMINISH.

..RACY.. 02/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.