[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131955
SWODY1
SPC AC 131953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
PSX 50 SE AUS 20 WNW CLL 50 ESE FSM 45 SSE HRO 45 SW ARG 60 W MEM 15
SW GLH 20 SSE MLU 10 SSW ESF 30 NNE LFT 40 N MSY 30 WNW GPT 40 ESE
GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 15 W NIR 40
E SAT 20 SSE TPL 45 WNW TYR 20 WNW PGO 45 ESE SGF 30 S SPI BMG 30 W
BHM 40 N CEW 10 ESE AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX / AR /
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD WITH TIME...WHILE
SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION / LOWER MS VALLEY.  AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...E TX / ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
BAND OF SHOWERS / A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS LA
INTO SERN TX ATTM.  ALONG SWRN FRINGES OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND --
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SERN TX / EXTREME SWRN LA...MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AROUND 25 KT SFC-1 KM
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.  

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOULD PERSIST WEST OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION...INVOF
WEAK DRYLINE / TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SSWWD
TOWARD ERN FRINGES OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY.  STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ARE OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S.  DAYTIME
HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...THOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED BASED ON APPEARANCE OF
CU FIELD IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.

ADDITIONAL HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING TROUGH / DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH MOST LIKELY ZONE OF INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CLL NNEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TOWARD HOT.  WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. THOUGH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF
AIRMASS THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 02/13/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.