[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131632
SWODY1
SPC AC 131630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
PSX 55 N VCT 40 NNW CLL 50 ESE FSM 10 N UNO 20 N POF 40 ESE POF 10
SSW DYR 30 NNE GLH 35 ENE MLU 20 SSE MLU 10 SSW ESF 30 NNE LFT 40 N
MSY 30 WNW GPT 40 ESE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 40 NNW ALI
SAT 50 NW AUS 35 SSE DAL 15 NNW PGO 30 NW HRO 30 WNW TBN 20 NE COU
25 NE IRK 25 NNW BRL 25 WNW MMO 35 NW MIE 50 SE IND 35 W CHA 20 S
AUO 25 NE AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
TX AND AR...AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE LA COAST....

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE WAVES
IS MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.  ONE
SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW EJECTING ENEWD FROM S CENTRAL
TX...AND ANOTHER IS DIGGING ESEWD OVER W TX.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
IN NE KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO LAKE MI BY EARLY MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE A TRAILING REMNANT LEE
TROF/DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM CENTRAL TX AND ERN OK
THIS MORNING TO WRN AR AND E TX TONIGHT.  THIS SURFACE TROUGH...AS
WELL AS THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM S CENTRAL TX...WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. 

THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SE TX WILL PERSIST TODAY AND GRADUALLY
MERGE WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE NW GULF AND SW LA. MUCH
OF THE DESTABILIZATION TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SRN AND WRN
FLANK OF THE ONGOING SE TX STORMS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
WILL RANGE FROM 60-64 F AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7-8 C/KM
AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18 C.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
FROM E TX NEWD INTO AR...ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR A FEW
HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES EARLY TONIGHT.  

THE AIR MASS E/SE OF THE GULF/LA RAIN BAND IS STILL MODIFYING BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS WITH TEMPERATURES 2-5 F
COOLER THAN SST/S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.  THE AIR
MASS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY UNTIL TONIGHT NEAR COAST...WHEN THERE WILL
BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..THOMPSON.. 02/13/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.