[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121949
SWODY1
SPC AC 121947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 N GBN 30
S PRC 15 W INW 35 S GUP 15 NE TCS 30 SSE ROW 60 NW BGS 35 ENE LBB 55
WNW CSM 45 SSW P28 25 NNW BVO 15 SE JLN 35 ENE HRO 25 NE LIT 30 ESE
ELD 30 SSW LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE
ROCKIES OVER SERN CO WILL ALSO MOVE / DEVELOP EWD...REACHING CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF KS / OK BY 13/12Z.

...AZ / NM...
COOLEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ / NM THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THIS REGION...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EVIDENT ATTM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK HEATING MAY
YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION.  ANY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS UPPER TROUGH / COLD POCKET SHIFTS EWD AND DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES.

...TX / OK AND VICINITY...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM A PARTIALLY-MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO IS EVIDENT
ATTM ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX...WHERE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEWPOINTS ARE INDICATED.  AS DEVELOPING LOW OVER SERN CO SHIFTS
ESEWD...CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL TRANSPORT
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM NEAR SRN
FRINGES OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD...INDICATIVE OF
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASINGLY-COOL MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MINIMAL
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED / MAINLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX / OK AND PERHAPS SWRN MO / WRN
PORTIONS OF AR AND LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.