[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130052
SWODY1
SPC AC 130050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 10 WNW SAD
10 WNW PHX 30 S FLG 30 NE INW 25 W SAF 30 SSE SAF 30 NW ROW 45 ESE
GDP 35 SSW INK 45 S MAF 20 NW SJT 20 NE BWD 30 SW ADM 25 SE OKC 25 W
PNC 50 E ICT 50 S SZL 30 N UNO 60 WSW MEM 40 N HEZ 30 SSE LCH
...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 30 S LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VLY OVERNIGHT.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS
ADVECTING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS
INTO CNTRL TX AT 00Z.  GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...OWING TO
ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. 

PRIND THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITHIN 
THE BROAD WARM CONVEYOR FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK AND SRN
KS.  THE TSTM THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND PERHAPS
THE LOWER MS VLY BY 12Z.  TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE HAIL.  MORE SURFACE BASED
UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL NOT ARRIVE/EVOLVE UNTIL BEYOND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.

...SRN ROCKIES...  
COLD POCKET ALOFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.  MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.  BUT...ISOLD LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NM AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX.

..RACY.. 02/13/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.