[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121623
SWODY1
SPC AC 121622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 NNW PHX
35 S GCN 45 ENE GCN 45 N GUP 40 ENE GNT 35 SSE ROW 60 NW BGS 35 ENE
LBB 55 WNW CSM 45 SSW P28 25 NNW BVO 15 SE JLN 35 ENE HRO 25 NE LIT
30 ESE ELD 30 SSW LCH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE THE EWD
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN
PLAINS.  A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO
TODAY...AND THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER
SPEED MAX /NOW S OF ELP/ EJECTS NEWD OVER W TX AND OK. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING
SPEED MAX ACROSS SW/CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO OK TODAY...WHERE A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 F IN A NARROW RIBBON
ACROSS THE WRN GULF...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE TX COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE MOISTURE AXIS BY LATE TONIGHT AS
FAR N AS ERN OK/AR.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK/AR/NW LA AS THE LARGER
SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND PERHAPS WRN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/THERMAL TROUGH.  RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME DEEP CONVECTION/A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS BY LATE EVENING.

..THOMPSON.. 02/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.