[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120519
SWODY1
SPC AC 120517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW YUM 55 WSW EED
35 SE LAS 55 SSE SGU FMN 4SL 45 NNE 4CR 45 WSW CVS CVS DHT HLC BIE
P35 IRK ALN BNA HSV CBM 35 SSE BPT ...CONT... 25 ESE CRP 35 SSW ALI
35 S LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD...FEATURING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE SRN CA AND BAJA.  EXPECT THIS PERTURBATION TO MOVE ACROSS
4-CORNERS REGION AND SRN ROCKIES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
PERIOD...SUBSEQUENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER SRN PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER MO/TN RIVER VALLEYS.  EXPECT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK/KS/MO. AS SFC LOW
MOVES EWD ACROSS KS...PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NRN/WRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX.  BOUNDARY
LAYER SLYS IN MODIFIED CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR MASS RETURNING FROM
GULF WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD THROUGHOUT AIR MASS MODIFICATION
PROCESS...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK.

...SRN/ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS
NWRN GULF -- SHOULD WARM TO MID 50S/LOW 60S RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS
MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS CONTINUES.  MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE MUCAPES THROUGH PERIOD...WITH MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS
INDICATING 500-700 J/KG ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN
TX BY END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT CAPPING TO LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE SFC MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK IN
LOOSE BAND FROM S TX NEWD TOWARD WRN TN.  50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
EFFECTIVE PARCEL SRH 150-300 J/KG INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY
DISCRETE CELLS TO ROTATE...ENHANCING HAIL PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT
ESPECIALLY NEAREST TO GULF MOISTURE SOURCE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
INCOMPLETENESS OF RETURN FLOW AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
BUOYANCY...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.  

RELATIVE MIN IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN SOME CORRIDOR FROM
W-CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK -- SURROUNDED BUT NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECTED BY HIGHER ELEVATION HEATING FARTHER W...WARM-FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FARTHER NE...AND OPTIMAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER E AND
S.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT STRENGTH
OF MESOSCALE FORCING TO OUTLINE A THUNDER-FREE HOLE WITHIN BROADER
GEN TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO TN VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING SHOULD PERMIT OCCASIONAL TSTMS WITHIN WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
BAND.  PARCELS MAY BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC AMIDST ELEVATED
MUCAPES 50-200 J/KG.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN OVER SRN/ERN KS...SERN
NEB...SWRN MO AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS NRN OK DURING LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  AFTER DARK...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH
PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE AS FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS MO/AR AND
WRN/MID TN.  LACK OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE
POTENTIAL MINIMAL.

..EDWARDS.. 02/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.