[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020529
SWODY1
SPC AC 020527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE JAX 30 S CTY
...CONT... 40 W HUM 30 WSW MCB 25 NW JAN 15 WSW TUP 15 SE CSV 25 SW
5I3 15 NNE PSK 15 WSW GSO 30 E CAE 25 E CHS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...
DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE ALONG THE N PACIFIC CST. AS RIDGE BUILDS E
ACROSS THE NWRN STATES...EXPECT UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN NM/SRN CO TO
SHEAR SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN MO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...
BEFORE REACHING CNTRL KY BY 12Z THURSDAY.  FARTHER SW...IMPULSE NOW
OVER SRN CA SHOULD SETTLE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER NRN BAJA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...CURRENT SURFACE DATA AND THE 00Z GFS/NAM OUTPUT
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE N
CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR BVE IN EXTREME SE LA AT 12Z.  WHILE THE WAVE
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NE TO NEAR MOB BY MIDDAY...THE CIRCULATION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS /1/ UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NWD INTO MO...AND /2/ THE
FEATURE ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT INFLOW OF COOL...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR OVER THE ERN GULF CST.

...EXTREME SE LA AND CNTRL GULF CST...
A LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER EXTREME SE LA...INVOF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE.  THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NE TO THE MS/AL
AND WRN FL GULF CST TOWARD MIDDAY.  WHILE AMPLE /50 KT/ DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF SURFACE HEATING. 
THUS...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.