[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 311629
SWODY1
SPC AC 311628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
SCK 30 E UKI 35 WNW RBL 35 SSE MHS 35 E RBL 55 NE MER 30 E MER 20
SSW MER 30 ESE SJC 30 W SCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 20 NW MSY
MOB CEW 20 SSE MAI 50 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BLI OLM 30 NW
MFR 35 S MFR 45 W AAT 40 ESE AAT OWY 65 WSW MLD 15 ENE OGD 45 NW PUC
35 SE U24 15 ENE NID 40 SE BFL 25 SW SBA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY....

...SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER NW CA. 
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN CA THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING W OF THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRECIPITATION BAND.  COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION...WITH SBCAPE VALUES
UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
DESPITE THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING INLAND RATHER EARLY IN THE
DAY...EXPECT CHANNELED SLY/SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST WITHIN
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BENEATH 40-50 KT WSWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-UPPER JET.  THE
COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND THEN THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST EARLY SUNDAY...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH BUOYS
SHOWING NEAR 70 F DEW POINTS.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. 
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WAA TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE
AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NE MEXICO.
THOUGH TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL DAY
2...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z IN THE AREA FROM
ROUGHLY MSY TO TLH.

..THOMPSON.. 12/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM