[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 312003
SWODY1
SPC AC 312002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
MER 40 E SCK 60 NNE MER 40 NE FAT 40 NE BFL BFL 20 NE PRB 25 S MER.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 20 NW MSY
MOB CEW 20 SSE MAI 50 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N UIL 35 SSW OLM
25 W MFR 35 SSE MFR 35 SSE LMT 45 ENE LKV 15 N OWY 50 S BYI OGD 55
SSE SLC 50 SSW ELY 15 WNW PMD 15 NE SBA 25 SW VBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA...

...NRN/CNTRL CA...
COMPACT AND VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND
RADAR LOOPS ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WITH
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A FAST MOVING SOLID LINE OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR AS
THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER...TRAILING
PORTION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ESEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS IN PLACE BASED ON LATEST HNX VWP DATA. GIVEN LINEAR
STRUCTURE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF FRESNO COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.

ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LEADING LINE IS
LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WHILE A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATER TODAY.

..CARBIN.. 12/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM