[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310048
SWODY1
SPC AC 310047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST FRI DEC 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N UIL 30 NNW PDX
10 NNE MFR 45 N UKI 60 SW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOB 35 SSW JAN
30 NW JAN 15 E TUP 20 SE BNA 45 ENE BWG 60 SSW LEX 35 W LOZ 40 SSW
LOZ 40 ESE CHA LGC 25 NNW GZH 50 NNW MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LWR MS/TN AND OH VLYS...
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MS VALLEY REGION...WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
TN/KY THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED IN SRN MN...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS NERN IA/IL WRN TN AND
KY/MS AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH NEARBY EVENING SOUNDINGS DID NOT SAMPLE
THE REPRESENTATIVE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT IN THE KY/TN AREA...RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ...LIKELY AS A
RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD...THE THUNDER
SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S HAD ADVECTED
INTO MS...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB. DESPITE STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN STRONG
UPDRAFTS...SO LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAVE BEEN DROPPED. 

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO AL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
THUNDER SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

..IMY.. 12/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM