[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301228
SWODY1
SPC AC 301226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S JAN 35 N HEZ 35
S LLQ 40 NE PBF JBR 25 NW DYR 50 NE MKL 45 SSE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE
ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 40 S JAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BLI 60 N MFR
20 WNW RBL 25 WSW SAC 50 SW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NRN MS...
MID LEVEL VORT MAX NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WILL AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  STRONG MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD WITH AXIS OF 70-80 KT H5 WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
SURFACE REMAINS COOL/DRY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THIS REGION...
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/NOW OVER THE NWRN GOM/ NEWD ACROSS LA WITH 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INTO W-CENTRAL MS BY THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGEST ASCENT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND SHOULD
SUPPORT MOIST CONVECTION INTO A REGION OF VERY WEAK/MINIMAL
INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ATTM TO REMAIN TOO
WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS REGION.  A MORE LIKELY AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG NERN EDGE OF MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE BEING WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE
LOCATION OF DEEP ASCENT...NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ALL DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION SSWWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MS AFTER 21Z.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
FAST MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...PRONOUNCED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS/HAIL AS MUCAPE APPROACHES 500 J/KG.

...PAC NW...
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY WILL PERSIST INTO NRN CA AND WRN ORE/WA TODAY. AS NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE NRN CA/ORE COAST...RESULTANT
INCREASE IN UVV AND COOLING H7-H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL
RANGE.

..EVANS.. 12/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM