[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301633
SWODY1
SPC AC 301631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCB 30 SW ESF
25 NE IER 20 ESE LLQ JBR 25 NW DYR 50 NE MKL 45 SSE BNA 20 NE RMG 40
ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 25 WSW MCB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BLI 60 N MFR
20 WNW RBL 25 WSW SAC 50 SW SFO.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AN
AXIS FROM NRN OK TO IA WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THIS
EVENING...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF THE IA/MN BORDER WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN LAKE
MI BY TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT.  THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION.  FARTHER
W...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC COAST AS A BROAD
TROUGH AND SERIES OF MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA APPROACH FROM THE ERN
PAC.  THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WA/ORE/NW CA COASTS LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 43 N AND
132 W MOVES INLAND.  

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER LA/MS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING NEAR OR E OF THE MS RIVER 
AND STREAK EWD TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 40 KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 850 MB
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL. ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE GROUND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

..THOMPSON.. 12/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM