[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300556
SWODY1
SPC AC 300554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MCB 40 NNW HEZ
30 SSE LLQ 60 NNE GLH 35 E MEM 45 E MKL 40 SSW BNA 30 WNW CHA 20 NE
RMG 30 NNW LGC 25 W AUO 40 ENE PIB 20 NNE MCB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE BLI EAT 25 W
LKV RBL 70 WSW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN 80 KT JET
MAX...DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SEWD INTO THE AR/TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN LIFT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...MS/AL AREA...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WERE LOCATED IN FAR SRN TX
THURSDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT THESE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NEWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
MS...WITH MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN HALF. ALTHOUGH
30 M HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MS...THE LARGER
HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LOCATED FROM
NRN MS NWD INTO TN AND KY. IF STORMS DEVELOP... FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THE QUESTION
ATTM IS IF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED AS CENTRAL/SRN MS WILL
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE JET AXIS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
MAY INHIBIT THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN
MS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND FORCING ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THERE
MAY BE A SMALL AREA BETWEEN JAN AND TUP WHERE  ENOUGH
INSTABILITY/FORCING IS FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO
BETWEEN 21-01Z. SINCE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXISTS AT THIS TIME...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES
ARE FORECAST. IF THE THREAT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT LATER IN THE
DAY...AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE NEEDED.

ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN MS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
INTO AL THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN...AS MAIN FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL AREAS.

...PACIFIC NW...
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESULTS IN COOLING ALOFT AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..IMY.. 12/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM