[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170541
SWODY1
SPC AC 170539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LBX 35 N GLS 35
NNW GPT 20 NNE VLD 70 ESE SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST...

LATE THIS EVENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX CONTINUES ITS
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH TIME EJECTING EWD ACROSS
THE GULF STATES SATURDAY.  DOWNSTREAM...DOMINANT SFC RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS LOW
LATITUDE FEATURE WILL IMPEDE NWD RETURN OF MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WHILE MAINTAINING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH ALLOWING A RETURN ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA.  SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF FRONT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PLUME OF SUSTAINED ASCENT.  ALTHOUGH PROFILES
INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...IT APPEARS MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 200-400J/KG WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED...HIGHLY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR 700MB.  FARTHER SOUTH...ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA
WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED...AND MOSTLY LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE DUE
TO WEAK CONVERGENCE.

..DARROW.. 12/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM