[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160549
SWODY1
SPC AC 160547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MFE 55 NNE MFE
35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA
55 NE PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH FL...

SFC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER MEXICO.  WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST
PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS.  IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING
SUGGESTS MOST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE.

...SOUTH TX...

LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS LOW LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO WITH A BROAD BAND OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN TX WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR.  THIS FEATURE WILL SHARPEN THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM EAST OF BRO TO NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WRN GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN MODIFYING AND LIFTING NWD INTO
THIS INCREASING ZONE OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
INCREASES AFTER 06Z.

..DARROW.. 12/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM