[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160100
SWODY1
SPC AC 160058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CHS 60 SSE CHS
20 NE CRE 15 SSE FAY 10 S RDU 30 NW AVC 50 SW DCA 30 WNW ILG 15 NNW
TTN 10 WSW JFK 60 SE ISP ...CONT... 50 SSW CTY 50 E JAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

00Z SOUNDING FROM CHS SUGGESTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING
WITH BACKING WINDS AND CAA NOTED THROUGH MID LEVELS.  MODEST LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIT HOWEVER AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT PROVIDING AT
LEAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION AND A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA. 
STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AIRMASS OVER THE
WARMER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. 
THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY OVER LAND DOES NOT WARRANT A
SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTING NORTH
WITH TIME.

...FL PENINSULA...

FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG ADVANCING
COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 00Z
SOUNDING AT TBW THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SFC
BASED PARCELS FORCED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT APPEAR TO BE BUOYANT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHTNING WITHIN THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 12/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM