[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161251
SWODY1
SPC AC 161249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE
35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA
40 SE PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY
AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WI/UPPER MI.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD AROUND THE LOW FROM VA/PA THIS
MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM NJ ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY...AND
ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS EVENING.  SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OFFSHORE ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. 
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY SINCE 10Z...AND THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE TOO
MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.

FARTHER S...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
CYCLONE/ WILL STALL ACROSS SE FL.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70
F ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FAR W TX TO NW MEXICO
WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD TX THROUGH TONIGHT.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST OFF THE LOWER TX COAST.  LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WAA ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION BY TONIGHT INVOF THE TX COAST...THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.  SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR INLAND AS THE HILL
COUNTRY TONIGHT...THOUGH MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON.. 12/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM