[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151948
SWODY1
SPC AC 151946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
CHS 30 ESE FAY 45 E RZZ 25 NNE ORF 50 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF ABY 20 NW
MCN AHN 40 ESE SPA DAN 45 SSE CHO DCA 35 WNW ILG AVP POU 45 SSW BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....

...ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FLORIDA...
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS ONGOING NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY CLOSED LOW.  AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 
THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LINGERING TRAILING
SHEAR AXIS STILL A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF GULF
COASTAL AREAS...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...NEAR TAMPA BY AROUND
16/00Z...THEN INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA AND THE KEYS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS WHERE MORE MOIST AND WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ADVECT INLAND PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
OR SEVERE STORM IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
AND THE KEYS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HAS SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  AS NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...WITH MOST SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS RETURNING OFF THE ATLANTIC
...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR SEEMS
LOW.  THIS IN TURN APPEARS TO LIMIT...THOUGH IT MAY NOT
PRECLUDE...SEVERE THREAT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION WITH A RISK OF WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM