[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151623
SWODY1
SPC AC 151621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
AAF 10 S MAI 35 NE MAI 20 WNW AYS 45 W JAX 65 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF 15 NW MAI
45 S CSG 50 SSE MCN 25 NE VDI 40 WSW SOP DAN 45 E CHO 35 WNW ILG 15
WNW AVP 20 WSW POU 40 SSE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL INTO FAR
SRN GA...

...NRN FL/SRN GA...
SQUALL LINE CONSISTING OF DISCRETE CORES/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING.  ACTIVITY IS ALONG EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SURGING
EASTWARD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE MESO
LOW/SURFACE WAVE IS PERSISTING ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD
FRONT/SQUALL LINE AND WEDGE FRONT ANCHORED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAV
WWD INTO SWRN GA.  PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...WARM FRONT ALONG NERN
EDGE OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE IS EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THE WEAK LOW
CENTER TO JUST WEST OF THE FL BIG BEND REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS
DEFINING A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER SURFACE THETA-E AIR WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.  VWPS AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXTREME SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS
OF 500 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KT.  THEREFORE...AS
LONG AS STORMS CAN ROOT INTO THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST.
BIGGEST QUESTION ATTM IS HOW FAR EAST CAN THE MARITIME AIR
OVERSPREAD NRN FL BEFORE NARROW WARM SECTOR GETS PINCHED-OFF BY EWD
MOVING SQUALL LINE.  ATTM EXPECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST
EWD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND REGION/FAR SRN GA THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OVERALL WEAKENING/DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
REMAINDER OF NERN FL/SERN GA AS STORMS BEGIN INGESTING LOWER THETA-E
AIR OVER THE PENINSULA.

...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
REMAIN WARRANTED FROM THE GA COAST NWD ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS. 
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG BAROCLINIC AXIS NEAR COASTAL
WARM FRONT NOW JUST OFFSHORE.  NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR INLAND
WITH ITS LOW CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT PRIMARY
CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN/COASTAL SC. THIS WOULD THEREFORE
SUPPORT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. 
HOWEVER...SHOULD LOW DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND THEN EXTREME SHEAR AND
PENETRATION OF MODIFIED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER
SEVERE RISK LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TRACKS NWD TOWARDS THE
CHESAPEAKE REGION.

..EVANS.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM