[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151240
SWODY1
SPC AC 151238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
PNS 20 NE CEW 25 SW ABY 25 WSW AYS 25 NW GNV 65 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE BVE 20 E GZH 25
NNE TOI 25 N LGC 10 E AHN 40 SSW CLT DAN 45 E CHO 35 WNW ILG 15 WNW
AVP 20 WSW POU 40 SSE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...N FL AND S GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED TX AND THE NWRN GULF OVER THE LAST
24 HRS SHOULD ACCELERATE NE ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC CST TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE NOW ROUNDING BASE OF WI UPR LOW AMPLIFIES E/SE ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VLYS.  SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF IMPULSE...
NOW OVER CNTRL AL...SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE SC PIEDMONT BY
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING MORE RAPIDLY NNE TO NEAR KPHL FRIDAY
MORNING.

...N FL/S GA NEWD TO THE NC CST...
LEAD SQUALL LINE WHICH EVOLVED FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS OVER THE NWRN
GULF IS WEAKENING ATTM OVER S GA AND THE FL CSTL BEND AS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM HAS OUT-RUN AXIS OF GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. 
THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...HAS ALLOWED
NEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO
RECOVER OVER THE NERN GULF...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
NEARING THE KPNS AND KAQQ AREAS.  AREA VWPS SHOW STRONG /40 KT/ SLY
FLOW AT 1 KM.  COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT WSW JET AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF N FL AND PERHAPS SW/S
CNTRL GA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF SHALLOW WARM FRONT SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.

EMPHASIS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CSTL
CAROLINAS...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AS
COASTAL FRONT EDGES INLAND.  CHARACTER OF STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD NOW
OFF THE GA/CAROLINA CST...AND MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. 
BUT COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLUX
ASSOCIATED WITH ACCELERATING SURFACE WAVE...AND INCREASING WIND
FIELD/UVV ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF OH/TN VLY
DISTURBANCE...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF STRONGLY-FORCED
STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WIND.

..CORFIDI.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM