[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150534
SWODY1
SPC AC 150533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
PNS 35 ENE CEW 35 SSW ABY 25 ESE VLD 25 NW GNV 65 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BVE 30 NE MOB 30
E 0A8 ANB 10 E AHN 40 SSW CLT DAN 10 SW DCA BWI 15 NE PHL 20 SSW JFK
40 SSE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL...

...NRN FLORIDA...

AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AN
EXTENSION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAS FORCED WRN GULF
AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S...INTO SERN LA/SRN MS
FUELING ONGOING SQUALL LINE THAT IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY
30-35KT.  CURRENT SPEED/MOTION OF THIS LINEAR MCS WILL PLACE IT OVER
THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
FL PANHANDLE BEFORE THIS FORCED LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES.  AIRMASS
OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT
CONTINUES TO MODIFY EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY WEAKENING
FARTHER EAST OVER THE PENINSULA...IN PART DUE TO MORE FOCUSED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.  FORECAST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT
THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL REMAIN
LINEAR...AND POSSIBLY A BIT ELEVATED.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS THIS SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS NRN
FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

FARTHER NORTH...RETREATING WEDGE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

..DARROW.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM