[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150041
SWODY1
SPC AC 150039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW
7R4 35 W LFT 35 SSE ESF GZH MAI 50 ESE AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLS 35 NW HOU 15
SW LFK MLU CBM BHM CSG 50 WSW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST REGION...

...GULF COAST...

EARLY EVENING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST ONGOING
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD OFF THE LA COAST INTO THE
NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TREND IS HEIGHTENED BY THE POOR
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LACK OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO WARRANT STRONG/ROBUST UPDRAFTS INLAND
ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL.  00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX DEPICTS MEAGER
INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 100J/KG...ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED PROFILE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  WITH TIME SLOW AIRMASS
MODIFICATION DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO ERN MS.

UNTIL THEN...GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING SQUALL
LINE ACROSS SERN LA.  EMBEDDED SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES COULD
ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT LOCALLY...HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

..DARROW.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM