[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141917
SWODY1
SPC AC 141916

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
CRP 30 WNW VCT 45 SSW CLL 30 SW POE GZH MAI 45 ESE AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 30 SE COT
20 ENE HDO AUS 30 N LFK MLU CBM BHM CSG 45 W CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS....

IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S...A WEAK COLD SURGE IS ONGOING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  FRONT IS NOW PROGRESSING INTO/THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX REGION/TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND OFF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...BY LATE THIS EVENING.  COLD
AIR DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS ONLY SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO MODIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...AND THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...GULF STATES...
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS...WHERE WEAKENED INHIBITION AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
ALONG THE MID INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
LIKELY WILL OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING.

AS SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT....MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR INTERSECTION WITH ANOTHER FRONT BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODIFYING AIR MASS INLAND OF THE EASTERN
GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS.  

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED 
IN BOUNDARY LAYER...OR REMAIN BASED ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH
SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT ZERO...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AREA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

..KERR.. 12/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM