[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131613
SWODY1
SPC AC 131612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE COT 50 WSW JCT
20 NE MWL 20 ESE CNU 30 SSW TBN 35 WSW MEM 30 S GLH 50 SW POE 10 N
PSX 25 NW CRP 40 SSE COT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH...
SSWLY LLJ WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING
THE SRN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL INCREASE ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING INTO ERN OK/OZARKS AND CENTRAL TX...
WITH EXPANDING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF ERN TX
INTO NRN LA/AR/SRN MO OVERNIGHT.  THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ELEVATED PARCELS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY BUOYANT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION TO THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.  COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL LIMIT
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500
J/KG.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 70+ KT WLY FLOW AT H5 OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY
AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.

..EVANS.. 12/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM