[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131301
SWODY1
SPC AC 131259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE COT 50 WSW JCT
20 NE MWL 30 NE BVO 25 SE VIH 60 W MEM 20 NNE MLU 50 SW POE 10 N PSX
25 NW CRP 40 SSE COT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT NE PAC RIDGE.  SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE 4 CORNERS SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT
ACCELERATES ENE INTO SW KS THIS EVENING...AND REACHES SE MO/NRN AR
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

LLJ ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE PLNS HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN/SHIFT EWD
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW PLUME OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE...
APPARENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA...TO SWEEP N AND LATER NE
ACROSS PARTS OF TX...THE OZARKS AND THE LWR MS VLY.

...CNTRL/E TX NEWD INTO ERN OK AND THE OZARKS...
LATEST SURFACE/VWP DATA SHOW SHALLOW OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING ATTM
OVER THE WRN GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE LWR TX GULF CST.  THE FLOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...ALLOWING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF TX AND WRN LA. 
DESPITE THE MOISTURE INFLOW...COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING ENE AHEAD OF 4 CORNERS
IMPULSE LIKELY WILL KEEP REGION CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TSTM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM
E CNTRL/NE TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND MO AS MOISTENING
CONTINUES BOTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND ALOFT WITH CONTINUED INFLUX
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.  BAND OF MODERATE DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION
SPREADING E ALONG SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAY YIELD A FEW
EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS OVER NE OK AND THE AR/SRN MO OZARKS.

FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT WEAKER UVV IN PRESENCE OF RICHER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NEARLY
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS FROM E CNTRL TX INTO SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  COMBINATION OF MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION
IN SOME STORMS.  HOWEVER...WITH MUCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500
J/KG...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

..CORFIDI.. 12/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM