[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131958
SWODY1
SPC AC 131956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CRP HDO 45 S
BWD DAL 10 ESE MLC FSM 30 ESE BVX 10 SSW GLH 25 WSW POE 25 SW LCH 55
SSE BPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
BROADER-SCALE TROUGH IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES
REMAINS GENERALLY IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
MORE RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION OCCURS TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERN
BRANCH JET DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
IN RESPONSE...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS MAY BEGIN TO
OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO MORE RAPID NORTHWARD
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...IN WAKE OF RETREATING
SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...MODIFICATION IS ONGOING...WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALREADY
SUPPORTED AN ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF
EAST TEXAS.

AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ENHANCES LIFT ALONG
DEVELOPING MOIST AXIS...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE EVENING. 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER CLOUD TOPS WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LIGHTNING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
ARKLATEX...SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY.

..KERR.. 12/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM