[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130549
SWODY1
SPC AC 130547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 6R6 65 WSW SJT
35 NNW MWL 15 SSW BVO 25 SE VIH 60 W MEM 20 NNE MLU 50 SW POE 25 NNE
PSX 40 NW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD
AS ERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC WHILE SECOND TROUGH DEEPENS/MOVES SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/SEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH A LIMITED THUNDER THREAT ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION.

...CENTRAL AND ERN TX/ERN OK INTO SRN MO/AR/NWRN LA...
THOUGH HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
SYSTEM...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS TROUGH
APPROACHES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK DUE
TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.  

THOUGH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX TO ALLOW
STORMS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE BASED...OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 12/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM