[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051919
SWODY1
SPC AC 051917

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
AAF 35 WNW AYS 15 NNW SAV 15 SSE CRE 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 30 ESE
SSI 40 WSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE PNS DHN CSG 20
S AND SOP 55 E ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE VRB 50 W FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...SOUTHEAST...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN
FLORIDA APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA/CAROLINA
COASTAL AREAS AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION
IS MINIMIZING DESTABILIZATION...AND LIKELY MITIGATING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY
HAS SUPPORTED AT LEAST WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG.  THOUGH THIS IS NOT STRONG...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT OF
BOUNDARY LAYER IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH LIFT FROM
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.  AS THIS
OCCURS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...UNTIL SURFACE FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AFTER 06/06Z...A
ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OFF THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA.  THIS
WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM